The power of the people’s collective opinion enabled a king to rule and that, should a king loses the support of public opinion, he would be a king no more.

                                -- Aristotle

Water shortage is threatening the world's population.  Fresh water resources are limited and being depleted by expanding population, pollution, mismanagement, and growing agricultural initiatives. These conditions are worse in the Middle East than perhaps any other parts of the world.  Hence, people who have built their livelihoods on a reliable source of fresh water are seeing the shortage of this vital resource and are increasingly demanding mechanisms with which nations can manage the growing water crisis.

Diversity of newspapers, expansion of multifarious publications and communication channels, and the role of mass media in enlightening public opinion are significant factors in crisis management in every society.  Governments and businesses, including various governmental and non-governmental agencies, should not underestimate the urgency of this regional and global crisis.  Reporters and writers should also realize their social responsibilities in publishing accurate, comprehensive, and clear information about the issues related to water crisis.

This article discusses the acute shortage of water in Middle East.  The crisis management, the role of mass media, communication approaches, and the impact of public opinion have been also addressed.  Subsequently the role of mass media in dealing with the water crisis has been analyzed.  This article concludes with a short summary of the research that has been done in Iran about high circulated newspapers roles in Tehran water crisis management has been mentioned.

Of the 1.5 billion cubic kilometers of water covers 70 percent of the surface of the earth, only a mere 3 percent is fresh water; of this, only 1 percent is available for drinking purposes. This as a result has caused many countries, especially Arab nations within the Middle East, to have unremitting conflicts between themselves since 1848.

 According to the World Bank report, half of the world’s population especially in Africa, South Asia and Middle East will be confronted with water scarcity thereby creating a devastating impact on the economic and social development of most countries of these regions. The average per capita water availability in these regions is about 1,200 cubic meters per year (world average is close to 7,000). The annual water availability ranges from a high of about 1,800 cubic meters per person in Iran to less than 200 cubic meters per person in Jordan, West Bank/Gaza, and Yemen. By 2025, the regional average of water availability is projected to be over 500 cubic meters per person a year. (1)

 The depreciation of fresh water is primarily accounted to rising population due to higher birthrates and increase in agricultural initiatives. The water crisis in the Middle East is escalating to a varied degree and has raised concerns as to how this issue would need to be resolved without any further conflicts. As the general public would need to be conscious of the fact that such a crisis exists, the media is used as the best mode of communication so as to get the message across in a prompt and efficient manner.

Newspapers, one of the oldest and most powerful media of communications are observed as key social factors in changing public opinions. Though the impressions and interests as expressed could be multifarious, it stimulates people of miscellaneous groups of society to express their thoughts and opinion on what has been published. Hence, newspapers can enlighten public opinions and its importance as a mass media in promoting public awareness and knowledge, has made it one of the most significant factors in crisis management sentient ever known to society. Therefore the key factor that one would need to comprehend is that governments, authorities and different groups in society should "accept" the role of mass media in crisis management. The term "accept" is a powerful word associated to media communication, as it involves freedom. Freedom is a high requisite for journalists in doing their work to publish accurate, comprehensive and clear information and as result enabling them to be an important factor in public opinion awareness.

This research study will consider the critical situation of water scarcity in the Middle East and the role which the mass media plays, particularly the newspapers, in enlightening public opinions. We will examine four well reputed and highly circulated newspapers in Tehran (Iran, Hamshahri, Resalat and Keyhan newspapers) and study and analyze the functioning of these newspapers in informing and creating awareness among the general public to conserve water and use it more efficiently in order to manage water crisis.

Whenever one speaks about the Middle East, oil is what first comes into one’s mind. Though these nations have enjoyed the fruits in possessing high reserves of oil over the past few decades, their primary focus should now be deviated to the water shortage that exists within their territories. Asghar Sabbaghi, professor of decision sciences at Indiana University South Bend believes that in the Middle East, "One of every five people lives in countries with inadequate fresh water and in 25 years, the ratio is estimated to be one in every three people." (2)

Water scarcity and quality-related problems are already having a profound impact on the nation's ability to care for their populations, as well as to assure that adequate water supplies will exist to meet future economic and environmental needs. This increasing importance of water in geopolitical affairs is also escalating the potential for conflict over water resources among nations. It is estimated that there are presently at least ten places in the world where war could erupt over dwindling trans-boundary water resources. The majority of these locations are in the Middle East.

 In the Middle East, 9 out of 14 countries currently experience scarcity of water and the others are rapidly approaching this state (Table1). In these countries, inhabitants receive less than 1000m3/year, an amount falling below the scientific demarcation for "water stress". Based on current population and consumption projections, other regions –such as the Maghreb, Sahel, East Africa, northern China, southern Europe, California, South Africa and Middle East will all experience water scarcity in the near future.

Modified source: State of the Planet 1993. World Watch Institute

 Plans for water diversion from the Jordan River by the Israelis has caused water conflicts ever since the 1940’s .The first water conflict in the region occurred in 1948 between Arabs and Israelis and eventually resulted in Arab forces cutting off West Jerusalem’s water supply. The second river involved in conflicts within the Middle East was the Yarmuk, a tributary of the Jordan River, which rises in south-eastern Syria and flows into Jordan a few kilometers downstream of Lake Tiberias.(3)

 In 1951, several states announced unilateral plans for the Jordan basin. When Jordan made public its plan to irrigate the East Ghor of the Jordan Valley by tapping the Yarmuk, Israel began draining the Huleh swamps. This action led to a series of border skirmishes between Israel and Syria, because the swamps' drainage infringed on the demilitarized zone between the two countries. (4)

 The Golan Heights, which run through both the Jordan and Yarmuk, are a strategic region overlooking the Damascus plain eastwards. Israel's main interest there however, is the source of water. Around 35% of the water consumed in Israel comes from the rivers bordering the Heights. In 1967, war broke out between Israel and Syria to which Israel destroyed the Arab diversion works on the Jordan River headwaters.  In addition, during the Arab-Israeli War, Israel occupied the Golan Heights, with Banias tributary to the Jordan. (5)

The use of the Nile's waters for development has also become something of a bone of contention among the 10 countries that share its basin - Burundi, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt.

 Another water body that has caused major conflicts was the Litani River, located entirely within Lebanon. There has been a verbal struggle over which country would require Litani the most and make optimum use of it, and who, therefore, should develop their use of the Litani. Although there is not an armed struggle over it now, it has been involved in armed struggles in the past (in the 1967 war, and in 1982) and it is conceivable that in the future the struggles over it may become armed. (6)

The disputes over the Euphrates-Tigris Rivers are no exception. Both rivers originate in Turkey with the former crossing Syria and Iraq and the latter running through Iraq before they were united to continue as Shatt-El-Arab in the Persian Gulf. In 1990, the war between Iraq, Syria and Turkey had delayed the construction of the Ataturk Dam, part of the Grand Anatolia Project, which as a result interrupted the flow of the Euphrates. This issue had a negative impact on the relationship that Iraq and Syria had with Turkey and in the mid 1990’s, Turkish President Turgut Ozal had warned Syria that if they did not withdraw their support for Kurdish rebels operating in southern Turkey, they would restrict the passage of water into Syria.(7)

But the Gulf War in 1990 and the collapse of the Soviet Union realigned political alliances in the Middle East and finally made it possible to have public face-to-face peace talks between Arabs and Israelis beginning in 1991. During the bilateral negotiations between Israel and its neighbors, it was agreed that multilateral negotiations would also be undertaken on five regional subjects, including water resources.

Despite Peace agreements, wars over "blue gold" will very much be a prominent factor within the Middle East, as when President Anwar Sadat signed the peace treaty with Israel in 1979; he stated that Egypt will never go to war again, except to protect its water resources. King Hussein of Jordan had also cited that except over water, he would never go to war with Israel again. In addition, the then United Nation Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali was aware of the fact that if there ever would come across a dispute between the Arab nations, it would definitely be on water issues. (8)

Water levels within the Middle East are diminishing each day and the people who have built their lives and livelihoods on reliable sources of fresh water are seeing the shortage of this vital resource impinge on all aspects of the tenuous relations that have developed over the years between nations, economic sectors, and between individuals and their environment. In this section we are going to consider the following issues:

• Whether media can enlighten public opinion?

• Do the media have the requisite power to prevent water conflicts?

• What is the role of media in water crisis management?

We will begin this discussion on crisis management and then elaborate the role of media in enlightening public opinion and towards the end,  highlight the key findings of the research pertaining to, "the role of high circulated newspapers in enlightening public opinions about Tehran water crisis in 1997".

So we can say that crisis management is: The process of anticipating negative trends or events, preparing actions to avoid as many events as possible, and managing those as they occur (10) or Having a communications plan in place that can be effectively put into action when something goes wrong for a company or organization. For instance, how a product recall will be handled (11).

As it is seen in the latter definition, a vital element required in a crisis situation is having a communications plan with the mass media, as the media has a significant effect on the future of crisis although in some cases mass media exacerbate crisis, for instance, the crisis after the Coalinga city earthquake. As Coalinga’s public health organization were not willing to co-operate with the mass media, it eventually resulted to an even greater catastrophe due to lack of communication.

Two thousand three hundred years ago, Aristotle was the first person who used the word "Communication". But what does it mean? Here are some of the definitions of communication:

• The interchange of ideas across space. Its complete definition is the consideration and action of impelling an impulse or particle from source-point across a distance to receipt-point, with the intention of bringing into being at the receipt-point, duplication and understanding of that which emanated from the source-point. The formula of communication is cause, distance, effect, with intention, attention and duplication with understanding (12).

• The process of transmitting and receiving messages. According to Roman Jakobson and others, an analysis of this process yields six factors: addresser, addressee, contact (or channel), context, code, and the message itself… This process has been taken as the focal object of semiotics (13).

• Any form of communication produced by a few people for many people to use is mass media. Mass media are channels of communication through which messages flow. As the messages go through the channels, they are distorted. When people receive media messages they have no opportunity for immediate feedback with the producer of the messages (14).

Among mass media, we are going to consider the role of newspapers in water crisis management.  But what are the roles of mass media?  The roles of mass media and their behavioral patterns have been assigned by society's needs. Generally their roles have been classified into 6 categories: 

• Political or watchdog role

• Economic role

• Sentry role

• Historical or record-keeping role

• Entertainment role

• Social role

• Marketplace of ideas

Public opinions are powerful, so the necessity of public awareness strongly becomes evident. This awareness causes people to have an interest in their individual and social life and thereby understanding their responsibilities in society.

In a survey that has been done in Iran, one of the countries in Middle East that according to global prediction will face water scarcity till 2025, the content of the high circulated newspapers, Iran- Hamshahri- Keyhan and Resalat, has been analyzed.  For examining the function and the role of media in water crisis and effective water consumption in Iran, we used the "content analysis" method. Bernard Berelson defined content analysis in 1952 as "a research technique for the objective, systematic, and quantitative description of manifest content of communications" (15). The statistical society was the whole editions of Iran, Hamshahri, resalat and Keyhan newspapers which are high circulated newspapers in Iran in 2002.

Results of content analysis showed that most issues were on demotic communications that being public telephones and letters to newspapers (23/7%). This showed the mutual communications between audience and newspapers but a few issues were about cultural education in order to increase public's culture about conserving water (2/8%) but according to Ajzen and Fishbein's Theory a person's intention is the main predictor and influencer of attitude. If a person intends to do something then they will more than likely do it. If they do not intend to do a behavior then they will more than likely not do it (16), so newspapers can change public's attitude and their behavior by printing educational and persuasion subjects but this research showed that newspapers have done their watchdog role more. Another result showed that most issues were without front page headlines in newspaper (96/7%); their size was small (41/8%); and had no pictures too (79/1%) but according to agenda setting theory, "media concentration on a few issues and subjects leads the public to perceive those issues as more important than other issues"(17), so printing subjects in small sizes, without picture and huge headlines on the front page can not lead readers to "what to think about. "

The research showed that the educational aspects of subjects were a few (1/3%) and most issues had complaints against water and wastewater situation in country (30/7%).

The main mechanism that has been used by newspapers was an informing mechanism without any educational purpose (63/2%). But for an efficient water crisis management it would be better to use educational mechanism more.

Other key findings from the research are as follows:  

Water scarcity is threatening the Middle East. Public opinions must be informed about this great calamity and parallel to technical acts for preventing water crisis, the culture of optimal water consumption must be promoted and the media must undertake this responsibility. They can draw the public's attention to the water scarcity and its consequences on all aspects of life by persuasive and prominent news and subjects. For achieving this goal they can profit by communication and persuasion theories to change public's opinion and attitude and at the end lead people to promote their behavioral habits toward optimal water consumption.

So the authorities must believe that the media is the most immediate and efficient way of informing and building the optimal consumption culture in water crisis management.

1-Seyyed Ahmad hoseseini "challenges, process and the future of water industry in Iran" Energy Ministry, Public Relations Department, March2002, page 11.

3-http://www.worldwater.org/conflictIntro.htm  

4- Wolf, Aaron, & John Ross, 1992. "The impact of scarce water resources on the Arab- Israeli conflict," Natural Resources Journal, 32: 919-958

9- http://www.hyperdictionary.com/dictionary/crisis 

16- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tfhrc/safety/pubs/96143/appa/body_appa_07.html

17-http://www.tcw.utwente.nl/theorieenoverzicht/Levels%20of%20theories/macro/ Agenda-setting%20theory.doc/