California Lutheran University
Abstract:
This paper looks at the challenge of globalization within a
historic perspective and examines its impact on world
economic convergence and growth with an emphasis on the
position of developing economies. The study shows that
globalization brought a much greater degree of economic
convergence in the world but its impact on economic growth
of developing countries is unclear. While volume of trade
increased substantially over recent decades the same cannot
be said about flow of capital (either in the form of
portfolio investment or FDI) to developing countries. The
plight of developing countries in general and the least
developed countries in particular are curious. While they
have become partners and supposedly equal members in
organization such as WTO there is not consensus among
scholars about their ability to have improved their
negotiation power within international organizations. Thus
the question remains that if globalization is not the cause,
neither is it the solution to the world's continuing poverty
and haunting inequality. It is hard to come to a concrete
deduction as to how globalization may change the face of the
world and solve economic problems of developing countries.
Nonetheless, the future success in addressing the problem of
economic underdevelopment will depend upon social, economic
and political climate of regions involved and this in itself
is going to unfold within a globalized world. The process
can change but the direction will not.
Keywords: Globalization, Developing Countries,
Economic Growth, Economic Convergence, Capital Flow
1)
Historical Perspective of Globalization
Globalization
is often defined as a combination of four major trends: the
expansion of international trade, financial flows (with FDI
as the most important component of these flows), global
communications (including transport) and movements of people
(immigration).
It can be
seen as a process of economic integration that started from
the time of 16th century Mercantilists to the
present day of Transnational Corporations (TNC). The
self-sufficiency of feudalism gradually and reluctantly
changed and in the process gave way to the emergence of
capitalism in its early form of a merchant dominated
environment. As Stanly Brue (2000) notes cities which have
been growing during middle ages became increasingly
important, trade flourished both within countries and among
different nations, and use of money received greater
importance in trade. Later, national states rose and the
emerging most powerful nations began acquiring colonies.
Great geographic discoveries occurred following the ever
importance of navigation systems and development of naval
capabilities both in their military and commercial forms.
This is the start of globalization in a relatively large
scale unseen in any period of time before.
Mercantilist
believed that the most desirable form of wealth was to
acquire as much gold and silver as possible, mobilize their
nations under nationalist fever, protect import and finished
product while making importation of raw material duty free,
and put a ban on export of raw materials to other countries.
They used every possibility to regulate and influence their
domestic economies. The impact of their government policies
on other nations and on their own population was of little
concern during this time. The doctrine of Mercantilism was
to benefit those who were most powerful: kings, government
officials and merchant capitalists.
In the early
days of capitalism, income distribution and the wellbeing of
populations had no importance. Most thinkers and elites were
in favor of a hard-working and poorly paid population. Some
like Jean Baptiste Colbert (1619-1683) were in favor of
forcing child labor. According to Colbert, no child was
young enough not to enter workforce. Idleness in early part
of a person’s life “childhood” was seen as a reason for
disorders in the older age.
The thinking
about the economy, its function, role of business and
government fundamentally changed since the early days of
Mercantilism. With the start of physiocratic school in 18th
century and its development to classical school brought a
different way of looking at the economy and the role of
international trade. There was a profound change in the
level of intellect during this time. This was the period
known as the enlightenment. The idea of free trade found its
roots in both the notion of natural order of physiocratics
[i] and the theory of “Moral
Sentiment” of Adam Smith, the most renowned economist of the
classical era. Moral sentiment argued how moral forces
restrain selfish tendencies of people in a society and
economic forces guild individuals in their struggle for a
better life.
Ronald
Findlay and Kevin O’ Rourke (2001) follow the trend of
integration of a commodity market during 1500 to 2000 and
argue that the range of goods that had been traded between
continents since the voyages of discovery steadily increased
over time. The move towards greater market integration was
not monopolistic; it often was interrupted by shocks
emanating from wars and world depressions and/or by internal
political responses to the income distributional aspects of
the process.
The trend of
globalization has continued over the past five centuries and
found greater momentum in the 20th century.
Jeffrey Williamson (1996) in looking at the history of
globalization in the OECD countries argues that the trend of
globalization in the latter part of 19th century
(1850 to 1914) was rather rapid. It brought massive
immigration and climate of open economies for a number of
decades. Capital and labor flowed across national frontiers
in unprecedented quantities resulting in a great boom in
commodity prices and a considerable reduction in cost of
transportation. This brought about a considerable
convergence in living standards among all nations, but
particularly among the OECD countries. Poor countries at the
periphery of the European club grew faster than the rich
industrial centers in the of the Old World (these were
Scandinavian countries, Ireland, and Italy). The second
period between 1914 and 1950 witnessed a growing trend of
autarchy in various nations. This period witnessed a trend
of de-globalization and divergence between and among the
countries.
Michael Bordo,
Alan Taylor, and Jeffrey Williamson (2005) notice that
despite the growing importance of globalization and its
great impact on governments and businesses around the world,
little efforts have been made to understand and predict the
long term economic and social impact of the process and its
place in the history of international integration.
2) The Impact of
Globalization on National Economies
On the
positive side of globalization, the process is believed to
give consumers more choice, and a broader range of qualities
to choose from. Globalization is likely to permit an
increase in the level of global output, stimulate economic
growth and generate new employment. Trade allows countries
to export those goods and services that they can make
efficiently, and to import those goods and services that
they make inefficiently. Increasing trade can add national
incomes and personal incomes. Globalization results in lower
prices, enabling consumers to buy more at lower prices and
therefore enjoy a higher standard of living. Trade
introduces more competition into domestic markets so that
local monopolies can be avoided. Free trade exposes
countries to new production and management technologies that
foster higher productivity at both the firm and the industry
levels. Globalization brings better and more advanced
technology and other forms of intellectual capital to
countries that would otherwise have to live without it.
On the side
of opposing globalization, the list of complaints is not any
shorter. Many claim that commercial interest takes priority
over development so that developing countries are exploited.
Globalization widens the gap between rich and poor and
contributes to the impoverishment of developing countries.
Companies move to countries with lower environmental
standards which increases pollution. Health and safety
regulations are avoided by moving into lower standard
countries. Globalization destroys jobs due to
rationalization. The economic power is concentrated in the
hands of a few large multinational corporations, such as
banks and petroleum companies. Individual cultures are
endangered by a global culture. A global network makes it
easier to distribute illegal goods and contributes to
violence and crime. The independence between countries is
increasing and the economic development in one country can
easily be influenced by policies in other countries. It is
hard not to be attracted to either side of this argument.
For the
purpose of this paper we would like to look at this process
in an effort to find answers to the following three
questions:
-
Does
globalization bring greater equality within an economy as
well as among the community of nations and cause a process
of convergence among the economies of countries engaged in
the process?
-
Has the
process of globalization helped flow of much needed
capital to the countries that are in need?
-
Has the
political process of globalization helped developing
countries to acquire stronger say in protection of their
position in relation to rich and affluent countries? Is
the world becoming more egalitarian in the political scene
through globalization?
2.1) Has Globalization Made
the World More Equal and Been a Force for Economic
Convergence?
Peter Lindert
and Jeffrey Williams (2001) contend that the world economy
has become far more unequal over the last century than ever
before in the course of history. They argue that within
country income inequality has risen and fallen episodically.
Prevalence of free market can be achieved easier through
opening up to a competitive global economy, but it does not
imply that we will have greater equality between the nations
or within each as the result of greater globalization.
Lindert and
Williams argue that “virtually all the observed rise in
world income inequality has been driven by widening gaps
within nations.” Meanwhile they attest that the world
economy has become more integrated. As such a simple
correlation indicate that greater economic integration
resulting from globalization must have caused greater
inequality among the nations but it may have not had a clear
role in creating greater inequality within nations. Lindert
and Williams argue that the likely impact of globalization
may be quite different with what such simple correlation
suggests. They argue that countries gained from
globalization based on their abilities to change their
policies. Those who gained most had greater ability to
change and take advantage of the circumstances and those who
did not such receptivity for change gained least. The
question of following market based allocation and creation
of greater competition in a county and equality within and
among the nations remains a contention among different
economists and policy makers.
Samuelson and
Nordhause (2005) in their all time best seller textbook say:
“In reality, competitive markets do not guarantee that
income and consumption will necessarily go to the neediest
or most deserving. Laissez-faire competition might lead to
greater inequality, to malnourished children who grow up to
raise more malnourished children, and to the perpetuation of
inequality of incomes and wealth for generations. There is
no economic law that ensures that the poor countries of
Africa will catch up to rich countries of North America. The
rich may get healthier and richer as the poor get sicker and
poorer. In a market economy, the distribution of income and
consumption reflects not only hard work, ingenuity, and
cunning but also factors such as race, gender, location,
health, and luck.”
(Samuelson and Nordhause, 2005, page 239).
The issue of
economic equality and implementation of policies that can
result in greater equality in income distribution is a
complex and politically charged issue. One of the more
controversial topics of debate is the cost of redistribution
of income. This is captured by Arthur Okun’s “Leaky Bucket”
argument.[ii]
Arthur Okun (1975) argued that in taking steps to bring
about better distribution of income by taking income from
rich to poor, the amount of national income may go down. The
issue therefore becomes how far a country is prepared to go
to bring about a better income distribution facing the cost
of a reduced national income.
The question
of a tradeoff between economic growth and inequality is best
recognized in the work of the famous economist, Simon
Kuznest (1901-1985). His argument, known as Kuznest curve,
suggests that inequality within a nation increases as the
economy experience economic growth in its early stages. As
the economy grow and along with it per capita income goes up
inequality after reaching a peak will subside and becomes
lower.[iii]
One of the reason as to why such a cycle will be followed in
an economy is that in the early stages of economic growth,
physical capital is the main source of economic growth and
few by comparison own the means of production and thus a
greater number of people will not experience the same level
of improvements in their lives as the economy grows.
However, by continuation of growth and expansion of the
economy, the role of human capital becomes more important
and through such change a greater number of people
experience improvement in their wealth and wellbeing and
this change is expected to create greater equality in income
distribution.
While causal
observation may support Kuznets’s argument the change in
income distribution measured by Gini Coefficient presents a
different pattern of change in various countries over time.
Using the
Gini coefficient is a good indicator of income inequality
within an economy. A higher value of the Gini Coefficient
suggests a wider income gap within an economy than a lower
value. Lindert and Williams (2001) argue that the world Gini
Coefficient for 1992 was about 0.663 compared with a lower
value of 0.408 for the United States in 1997 and a much
lower level of 0.249 for Japan in the same year. They use
these numbers to argue that there is nothing less
egalitarian about a large integrated economy compared with
our barrier –filled world. The authors continue to claim
that the real source of inequality within a nation is poor
governance and lack of democracy than globalization.
The reasons
for greater inequality may be a source of disagreement among
economists, but there is little debate about the worsening
trend of equality among the nations. Robert (Bob) Sutcliffe
(2004) takes a close look at a number studies that addressed
recent trend in income distribution among the rich and poor
nations and regions of the world during the last half a
century.
Evolution of Gini Coefficient of North and South
|
|
Gini Coefficient |
|
Area |
1950 |
1960 |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
1995 |
2001 |
|
North |
0.2899 |
0.2057 |
0.1254 |
0.1036 |
0.1028 |
0.1011 |
0.1017 |
|
South |
0.4116 |
0.4071 |
0.4438 |
0.4521 |
0.3958 |
0.3630 |
0.3479 |
|
Africa |
0.2904 |
0.2950 |
0.3236 |
0.3586 |
0.3666 |
0.3820 |
0.3982 |
|
Latin America |
0.2524 |
0.2353 |
0.2333 |
0.1764 |
0.1623 |
0.1767 |
0.1872 |
|
Asia |
0.2097 |
0.1882 |
0.2595 |
0.3279 |
0.3029 |
0.3171 |
0.2977 |
|
Average Income as Percentage of the North |
|
South |
19.31 |
18.55 |
16.22 |
15.88 |
14.45 |
14.62 |
14.99 |
|
Africa |
15.32 |
13.62 |
11.66 |
10.25 |
7.69 |
6.83 |
6.6 |
|
Latin America |
44.37 |
40.04 |
34.25 |
36.10 |
26.90 |
27.47 |
25.84 |
|
Asia |
11.22 |
18.92 |
9.46 |
9.98 |
11.27 |
13.54 |
14.47 |
|
China |
7.77 |
8.60 |
6.73 |
7.13 |
9.89 |
13.54 |
15.92 |
Source: Calculation by Sutcliffe (2004) based on data
provided by Agnus Maddison (2003)
The above
chart shows an overall improvement in the first decade and a
half of the post-World War II period and little significant
change thereafter. The South on the other hand showed
improvement in its income distribution since the 1990s.
Income distribution in Asia worsened during this period.
Latin America showed some improvement since 1950.
The table
also shows that compared with the North, Latin America and
Africa had the highest decline. Asia as a continent and
China as a country within that continent show great
improvement in 1990. The condition in Africa is of
particular importance as the comparative income of this
region drastically declined since 1950 and the trend
worsened in the last two decades.
Global Ratios of
Extremes, 1980-2001
|
Using WDI[iv]
(2002) Figures |
|
|
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
|
Gini Coefficient |
0.667 |
0.650 |
0.627 |
|
Richest/Poorest 50% |
13.62 |
10.21 |
8.83 |
|
Richest/Poorest 20% |
10.21 |
33.85 |
29.49 |
|
Richest/Poorest 10% |
78.86 |
64.21 |
57.41 |
|
Richest/Poorest 5% |
120.75 |
101.02 |
116.41 |
|
Richest/Poorest 1% |
216.17 |
275.73 |
414.57 |
|
Using Maddison(2001) Figures |
|
|
1980 |
1990 |
1998 |
|
Gini Coefficient |
0.639 |
0.633 |
0.629 |
|
Richest/Poorest 50% |
10.4 |
9.1 |
8.9 |
|
Richest/Poorest 20% |
33.0 |
30.5 |
23.1 |
|
Richest/Poorest 10% |
58.2 |
54.9 |
61.1 |
|
Richest/Poorest 5% |
39.4 |
98.6 |
123.1 |
|
Richest/Poorest 1% |
214.3 |
290.6 |
359.6 |
|
Using WDI (2003) Figures |
|
|
2001 |
|
|
|
Gini Coefficient |
0.633 |
|
|
|
Richest/Poorest 50% |
8.55 |
|
|
|
Richest/Poorest 20% |
30.24 |
|
|
|
Richest/Poorest 10% |
63.84 |
|
|
|
Richest/Poorest 5% |
139.81 |
|
|
|
Richest/Poorest 1% |
613.47 |
|
|
Sources: Sutcliffe (2003) and authors calculations based on
World Bank (2003)
The above
chart shows that the Gini Coefficient as a whole changed
very little over the last two decades of the 20th
century, while the gap between the top income earners of the
rich and poor countries widened considerably during such a
short period of time. In order to have a better picture of
the widening gap between rich and poor nations, Sutcliffe
(2003) uses different datasets and calculates the ratios of
various nations income based on their place on the lists of
nations. The ratios in the table show that while the gap in
income of the 50 and 20 percent of rich over poor nations
showed slight improvement (reduction in ratio that indicates
a narrowing of gaps) the inequality in the top 10, 5 and 1
percent of the richest and poorest grew tremendously. The
gap between the top 1 percent of the richest and the poorest
shows a shocking increase.
As pointed
out in the early part of our discussion, economists for a
long time argued that ability to change is an important
element in benefiting from the positive impact of
globalization. This a complicated conjecture that may relate
to a number of issues not all to be found in the economic
potential or ability of different countries that succeeded
in bringing the needed change.
Political
problems often brought about by intervention from outside a
country played an important role in many parts of the world.
A clear manifestation of such intervention in recent time
can be seen during the Cold War that tore the world into two
camps of East and West. The hope of a new era of becoming
free from centuries of being colonized turned into desperate
decades of further pillage and devastation in the hands of
their own home grown military junta and despots supported at
all costs by one of the two super powers.
Most
economists consider greater ability to change from an
economic perspective in the ability of various regions to
bring structural changes in their economies. The efficacy of
structural adjustment as proposed and supported by the World
Bank and the IMF needs special attention that falls outside
the focus of this paper.[v]
Francisco Rodriguez and Dani Rodrik (1999) look at the
empirical evidence concerning the relationship between trade
barriers and economic growth. They are skeptical that there
is a strong negative relationship between trade barriers and
economic growth, at least for levels of trade restrictions
observed in practice.[vi]
They suggest that in cross-national work, it is useful to
consider contingent relationships between trade policy and
growth as to find out whether the relationship may be
different in low versus high income countries, or in small
versus large countries. They ask the question of how the
relationship may stand in comparing countries with
comparative advantage in raw materials versus those with
growing manufacturing sector. The authors expand their
observation and include many other specific questions aimed
at finding the relationship between economic growth and
trade restriction. While the authors do not support trade
protection as a way of supporting a country’s economic
interests,[vii]
they raise the important issue of how trade policy should be
looked at where the notion of free trade and greater
economic growth may not always be the situation that all
countries have experienced over the last several decades.
2.2)
Has Globalization Help Much Needed Capital Flows to Poor
Countries?
Many
economists believe that globalization can help the flow of
capital to where it is needed and through such process help
economic growth of the countries concerned. Peter Rousseau
and Richard Sylla (2001) show that countries with more
advanced financial system are better integrated with
countries with similar financial structure. They showed that
development of a financial system played an important role
in growth of trade and the economies that opened up to the
trade.
Larry Neal
(1990) analyzes the rise of financial capitalism in its
historic context. He shows that emergence of long distance
trade brought about a greater need for financial innovation
that can be traced back to the sixteenth century. It grew
much stronger during the course of development of European
economy in the later centuries and found its strength
through development of an information network.
Alan Taylor
and Jeffrey Williams (1994) argue that in the early days of
capitalism in the Old World Europe, the dominant countries
exploited other countries by import of their cheap natural
resources and export of their finished products. The major
impediment was cost of transportation. By the late
nineteenth century, freight rates had fallen far enough to
create a convergence of resource intensive exports for
exploiting the benefit of trade. Despite the Old Europe, the
New World had fewer labor and little capital but abundance
of cheap resources and raw materials. The flow of capital
along with immigration of labor is atypical of any classic
growth model, as capital does not chase labor from labor
abundant economy to labor scare new world, but the reality
of the time shows that there was a huge capital export from
Britain around the turn of the nineteenth century to the New
World. This serves as good evidence that foreign investment
in the New World prior to the World War I should be viewed
as an intergenerational transfer.
Kevin
O’Rourke and Jeffrey Williamson (1999) investigate the flow
of international capital since late nineteenth century. They
conclude that international capital markets were well
integrated in late nineteenth century. The market was mobile
and sensitive to rate of return differentials between
capital exporting and capital importing countries. Among a
number of relevant issues to capital flow and globalization
they make an attempt to answer the question that to what
extent capital mobility helped poorer countries to catch up
with rich countries. Theoretically capital mobility, given
the same level of risk, will allow capital flow from low
return investments to where the return is higher. O’Rourke
and Williamson conclude that in late nineteenth century,
world capital flows were a force for divergence since much
of the capital moved to some of the richest countries in the
world. Indeed they showed that European capital tend to
chase European labor who immigrated to land abounded and
capital scarce New World. Only in few cases capital moved
from rich to poor countries in search of cheap labor.
Robert Locus
(1990) takes up the question of capital flows from rich to
poor countries within the recent evidence of late 20th
century. He argues that the central idea of all postwar
development has been to stimulate transfer of capital from
rich to poor countries. He argues that such transfers will
be fully offset by reduction in private foreign investment
in the poor country or by increase in that country’s
investment abroad or both.
Some
believe that transfer of capital from rich to poor countries
has been made much easier through Transnational Corporations
(TNC). They claim that such corporations can easily
establish their affiliated companies and plants in
developing countries and transfer the needed capital. Andrew
Walter (1998) believes that globalization
theory has exaggerated the degree of mobility and structural
power enjoyed by TNCs in the world political economy. He
states:
“The claim that states suffer
from a collective action problem vis-à-vis TNCs is also
misleading. It appears to be firms rather than states that
have suffered from collective action problems, since there
has been no strong tendency on the part of TNCs to avoid
China, Indonesia or Malaysia simply because they dislike
aspects of these countries’ investment regimes. While
TNCs investing in countries like China or Indonesia would
prefer these countries to provide a strong liberal
investment regime, the sheer attractiveness of these
economies for most investors has prevented them from
wielding power over the host government to force such
liberalization.”
(Andrew Walter, 1998, page 27)
Restriction
and limits on foreign-owned companies in developing
countries have been mentioned as a reason for the inability
of a number of these countries to take advantage of capital
flow from rich countries. Changes since the 1980s provide
strong evidence that a number of these countries
particularly in Asia have changed their policies and become
more receptive to higher share of ownership by international
companies. A number of other countries have been forced to
liberalize their foreign investment rules and regulation
under pressure from IMF and WB.
The fact of the matter is that while volume of trade
increased substantially over recent decades one can not say
the same about flow of capital (either in form of portfolio
investment or FDI) compared with developed countries. This
trend is verified in the paper by
Manuel Penalver
(2002) who notes that FDI going to developing
countries has also increased substantially during the 1990s
but, contrary to trade, it remains at levels well below
those of industrialized countries (3.5 percent of their GDP
in 2000, against about 10 percent for the developed
countries.) The following table taken from Penalver’s study
shows that the trend of increased in net capital flow during
1990 and 2000 have been vastly different in various regions
of the world.
|
Net Capital Inflows by Region, 1990 and 2000
|
|
Net |
East |
Eastern |
Latin |
Middle East |
South |
Sub- |
Total |
|
Inflows ($ billion) |
Asia |
Europe and Central Asia |
America |
and N. Africa |
Asia |
Saharan Africa |
|
|
1990 |
19.4 |
7.7 |
12.6 |
0,4 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
43.5 |
|
2000 |
65.7 |
45.4 |
97.3 |
1.1 |
9.3 |
7.1 |
225.8 |
Source: Manuel Penalver
(2002), Globalization, FDI and Growth: A Regional and
Country Perspective, United Nations Department of Economic
and Social Affairs, Marrakesh, Morocco, 10-13 December,
2002.
The above
table shows that overall the net capital flow increased by
more than four time over a period of ten years.[viii]
As the following table shows we can see a similar trend in
the FDI flow to different regions in 1990 compared with
2000.
|
Foreign Direct Investment by Region, 1990 and 2000 |
|
FDI
|
East Asia |
Eastern |
Latin |
Middle East |
South Asia |
Sub-Saharan |
|
($
billion) |
|
Europe and |
America |
and
|
|
Africa |
|
|
|
Central Asia |
|
North of Africa |
|
|
|
1990 |
11.1 |
1.0
|
8.2
|
2.5
|
0.5
|
0.8
|
|
2000 |
52.1 |
28.5 |
75.1 |
1.2
|
3.1
|
6.7
|
Source: Manuel Penalver (2002), Globalization, FDI and
Growth: A Regional and Country Perspective, United Nations
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Marrakesh,
Morocco, 10-13 December, 2002.
In order to
better understand the regional patterns of FDI and trade
flow we use the following table from the same study that
presents an overview of regional performance in FDI, GDP
growth and trade. The following table shows both in absolute
amounts and in percentage of GDP (Latin America) has had
much lower growth rates than other regions (East and South
Asia), as well as much lower degree of “globalization” as
measured by the share of trade in GDP.
Regional Trends: FDI, Growth and Trade
|
Region |
GDP Growth Rate |
FDI/GDP |
Trade/GDP |
|
|
(1990-2000) |
(2000) |
(2000) |
|
East Asia |
7.2 |
3.9 |
65.6 |
|
Latin America |
3.3 |
4.5 |
37.7 |
|
Eastern Europe |
-1.5 |
3.8 |
65.6 |
|
South Asia |
5.6 |
0.6 |
24.3 |
|
Middle East and N. A. |
3.0 |
1.0 |
51.6 |
|
Africa |
2.5 |
1.8 |
56.8 |
Source: Manuel Penalver (2002), Globalization, FDI and
Growth: A Regional and Country Perspective, United Nations
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Marrakesh,
Morocco, 10-13 December, 2002.
As the author
indicates in spite of its rapid increase, FDI as a share of
GDP is still much smaller in developing countries than in
industrialized ones; for the latter, this share increased
from 3.0 percent in 1990 to 10.1 in 2000; in the developing
countries the share increased from 0.9 percent to 3.5
percent in the same period.
Penalver’s
study reaches a set of interesting conclusions for what we
set out to explore in this paper. He states:
“There are two
major caveats to the benefits of FDI for developing
countries: one is that, even under the best circumstances,
FDI has played only an important but complementary role:
domestic savings and investment are still the major source
of growth for developing countries…….. Historians would
remind us also that the shares of FDI were much higher in
earlier globalization periods, such as the one from 1870 to
1914. Should conditions (the “absorption capacity”) in
developing countries and aggregate demand in developed
countries improve, FDI flows at the end of the current
decade could show further increases to the ones between 1990
and 2000. The second caveat is that FDI is clearly not a
panacea for growth: there are several country instances of
fast growth with little FDI and many more of substantial FDI
with little or no growth. The discussion of country
conditions shows that, under certain conditions, countries
can attract FDI for the wrong reasons (e.g. privatizing
monopolistic power, delaying reforms, providing restricted
access to markets or resources, etc.). Like any other
investment, FDI can, on occasion, provide a private benefit
at a public cost.”
(Manuel
Penalver, 2002, page 19)
2.3) Has Globalization
Helped the Developing Nations Obtain Greeter Negotiating
Power in Determining Their Future Political and Economic
Destiny?
Earlier in
this paper we said that the period between 1914 and 1950
witnessed a growing trend of autarchy in various nations.
This period witnessed a trend of de-globalization and
divergence between and among the countries. Indeed during
this period the world economy went into a
deep depression in the 1930s, as many countries set barriers
to trade with other states. This led to mass unemployment,
social upheaval, the rise of fascism, and finally, the
Second World War. After the war the global powers set up
bodies to support international trade. In doing so they
established International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and all
countries were encouraged to join these organisations, or
face exclusion from benefits of free world trade. The
emphasis on trade and economic liberalization brought its
own challenges. The new phase of globalization as mentioned
before brought about the third phase of globalization since
the mid-19th century.
IMF was to lend to countries with balance
of payments problems, pushes for economic reforms, and
reports on policies in member states. World Bank aims were
to help development by advising and lending – with many
conditions and countries were encouraged to lift import and
export barriers, cut subsidies and remove price controls.
These two organizations followed a market based growth model
to modernize the economies of developing countries and
assist them to embark on greater economic development and
growth. In following such doctrine the IMF would only lends
money if countries agree to sell their resources cheaply,
cut public spending, get rid of consumption and production
subsidies (the many developed countries were reluctant to
give up), leave any attempt to control their exchange rate,
and balance their budget. Critics of IMF are quick to say
this served to increase the problems of poverty in poor
member countries.
For many years, the rise of poverty did
not come to the purview of either IMF or the World Bank. The
World Bank’s loans depend on countries to accept adopting WB
prescribed Structural Adjustment Program. IMF used adherence
to its Stabilization Policy as a prerequisite for its line
of credits to these countries. Many believe that such
programs in many cases led to rapid increase in price of
goods in those countries, increases poverty, lowered
investment, and cut social spending. Furthermore there is
little evidence to strongly support that these policies
actually work in where they were intended.
A third major player in the international
scene is the Word Trade Organization (WTO). The WTO deals
with the rules of trade between countries. It developed from
the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). WTO
agreements set the ground rules for international commerce.
The experience of the past several decades show that
opponents of globalisation point to falling share of world
trade taken by developing countries (as shown earlier in
this paper). While developing countries are pushed to open
their trade and reduce their barriers to trade subsidies and
tariffs set by rich developed economies, such as the USA
continues with its steel tariffs and EU agricultural
subsidies are the greatest barrier for developing countries
to get access to their markets.
The WTO has three categories of member
countries: developed, developing and least developed
countries. The latest data for January 2007 shows the WTO
has 150 member countries and 31 observers who wish to join
the group at a later date, when their application has been
accepted by the organization. Out of these members some 54%
are developing countries, 22% least developed and only 24%
are categorized as developed economies. Indeed some 76% of
the members are either developing or in the group of least
developed. The problem with free trade are many and the loss
of that are primarily born by the least developed or
developing countries. This brings up an important issue as
to why the large segment of the membership cannot do
anything to change the situation and persuade the
organization to take more decisive measures in support of
its majority. To understand this dilemma we need to look
deeper into the organization of WTO and how decisions are
taken within the organization.
As
Nancy Birdsall (2002) notes,
most developing countries began to be tied into the world
economy only in the 1980s. She states:
“In the 1980s, however, and increasingly
in the 1990s, most developing countries took steps to open
and liberalize their markets. In addition to reducing and
eliminating tariffs and non-tariff barriers, they made
fiscal and monetary reforms, privatized and deregulated
their economies, eliminated interest rate ceilings, and, in
the 1990s, opened capital markets—a package that came to be
known as the Washington Consensus. These market reforms and
accompanying, often socially painful, structural changes
were encouraged and supported by the International Monetary
Fund, the World Bank, and the U.S. Treasury with large loans
typically conditioned on countries' adopting and
implementing agreed policies. The increasing reliance on
markets in the developing world and, in the 1990s, in the
countries of the former Soviet empire is with good reason
seen as part and parcel of globalization. And because of the
conditioned loans, many opponents of globalization today see
the turn to the market—and thus to global capitalism—as
imposed on the developing countries. (Ironically, the loans
often were disbursed even when agreed conditions were not
implemented.)”
(Nancy Bridsall, 2002, page 5)
|
In order to show that expansion in trade does not
necessarily bring a desired increase in economic
growth we look at the following chart that has been
produced by the WTO.
Comparison of World Export and GDP Growth 1951-2003
Source: World
Trade Organization (1951=100)
http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2004_e/section2_e/ii01.xls |
|
 |
The above
chart shows that increase in export does not necessarily
follow the trend of growth in world GDP and the trend for
developing countries based on the foregoing discussion
indicate a lesser degree of positive correlation.
An important
question about the position of developing countries in
international organizations such as WTO is whether
membership that these countries provided them with equal
rights and say within these organizations. A number of
researchers believe that despite the rhetoric of partnership
and equal say within the organizations such as WTO, powerful
countries of the West in general and the United States in
particular call the shots. The increased level of poverty in
many regions of the world despite their attempt to obey the
rules of the developed nations is difficult to explain.
The question
remains that if globalization is not the cause, neither is
it the solution to the world's continuing poverty and
haunting inequality. Many of these countries are dependent
on primary commodity and natural resource exports. While
they were asked to open their markets in the early 1980s,
they have not been able to diversify into manufacturing
(despite reducing their own import tariffs). Indeed during
the course of the last two decades many of these countries
witnessed a fall in their price raw materials they export,
pushing them remain behind. Many have taken the medicine
prescribed by the international multilateral organization
and have not yet been able to increase their export income,
failed to attract foreign investment, and grown little if at
all.
According to
the rules and regulations of the WTO, its decisions are
absolute and every member must abide by its rulings. So,
when the US and the European Union are in dispute over
bananas or beef, it is the WTO which acts as judge and jury.
WTO members are empowered by the organization to enforce its
decisions by imposing trade sanctions against countries that
have breached the rules.
Sheila Page (2003) takes the issue of developing countries
and WTO in a study that she conducted for the United Kingdom
Overseas Development Institute. She challenges the two
pessimistic views that believe developing countries can not
gain from participating in the WTO negotiations. These views
according to Sheila Page suggest that if, the outcomes of
negotiations depend on the balance of power, and then no
amount of negotiating will make a difference. They go
further and assert that the only way to change the outcome
is to change the basis of power within the WTO. A good
example for such change is the rise of the EU in the GATT/WTO
from the 1950s to the present.
She argues that the second cause for pessimism suggested by
those who have a negative view on that matter is to take a
look at what has happened in the last few decades. It is
argued that developing countries have achieved little or
even lost in trade, climate change, and other environmental
negotiations. The author argues that the evidence and the
opinion of the developing countries reject such pessimism.
To support her claim she explains that the outcome of
Seattle and Doha showed some progress on the part of the
developing countries. At the Seattle Ministerial in 1999,
developing countries’ refusal to accept a process from which
they had been excluded led to a collapse of the meeting.
There were other reasons for the failure, but the developing
countries concluded that there had been a further shift in
the real balance of power; developing countries could not
only negotiate, they could block negotiations.
At Doha in 2001, there was further evidence of the ability
of developing countries to influence outcomes. While the
broad support for the successful anti-subsidy position in
agriculture precludes claiming this as a developing country
achievement, the developing countries were a visible part of
the alliance. The lessons of the latter development within
the WTO suggest that the future may be different with the
past and there are reasons to believe that developing
countries may succeed to pursuing their objectives in the
upcoming negotiations. Among the reasons for optimism is
more experience in setting agenda recognizing that they
could not remain outside any negotiation, however irrelevant
or unimportant it might seem initially. Developing countries
gained more negotiating experience in the regional trade
negotiations. They also received help from the private
sector.
It is true that technical know how and ability to acquire
professional service are important elements of a successful
negotiation and for a long time, although there was some
help available to them by international organizations such
as the World Bank or the UNCTAD, the level of support was
not enough to give them the skills and the experience needed
for a successful negotiation. The future seems more
optimistic. However, the remaining problem is the dependency
of developing countries for financial and technical support
from developed countries and this may still be a source of
influence in the interests of the developed countries.
3) Summary and
Conclusion:
Current literature on the impact of globalization is mixed.
Some see the process as the most effective way of overcoming
the challenge of underdevelopment, poverty and inequality in
the world. Others hold the exact opposite opinion and
consider it an empty promise with little evidence to show
that it has made any positive impact on lives majority of
people in countries that have embraced the process. This
study looked at both sides and although has no concrete
answers for the questions it posses, it sheds light on many
issues debated by the proponents and the opponents. The
study provides the following conclusions and deductions:
-
A free
market can be achieved easier through opening up to a
competitive global economy. However, it does not imply
that we will have greater equality between the nations or
within each as the result of greater globalization.
-
There is
no economic law that ensures that the poor countries of
Africa will catch up to rich countries of North America.
The rich may get healthier and richer as the poor get
sicker and poorer. In a market economy, the distribution
of income and consumption reflects not only hard work,
ingenuity, and cunning but also factors such as race,
gender, location, health, and luck.
-
Some
economists consider the greater ability to change from an
economic perspective and the ability of various regions to
bring structural changes in their economies an important
precondition to benefit from process of globalization. Yet
many are skeptical that there is a strong negative
relationship between trade barriers and economic growth,
at least for levels of trade restrictions observed in
practice. The important issue is such debate cannot be
helpful if one generalizes the entire world as a
homogenous entity. The outcome of opening up may vastly
differ in countries with different economic structure,
challenges and endowments.
-
The real
problem with this and similar studies is that while free
trade has not always proved to be the most effective way
of achieving a number of economic objectives from a
production or income distribution perspective, there is no
strong evidence that trade protection is the way to
overcome the problems either.
-
While
volume of trade increased substantially over recent
decades one can not say the same about flow of capital
(either in form of portfolio investment or FDI) compared
with developed countries.
-
The plight
of developing countries in general and the least developed
countries while they have become partners and supposedly
equal members in organization such as WTO is rather
confusing.
-
The
question remains that if globalization is not the cause,
neither is it the solution to the world's continuing
poverty and haunting inequality.
-
Many of
these countries who are voting members of WTO are
dependent on primary commodity and natural resource
exports. Many have taken the medicine prescribed by the
international multilateral organization and have not yet
been able to increase their export income, failed to
attract foreign investment, and grown little if at all.
-
Pessimists
argue that developing countries cannot gain from
participating in the WTO negotiations. If the outcomes of
negotiations depend on the balance of power, then no
amount of negotiating will make a difference. They believe
that decisions in the international institutions and WTO
are made by the powerful industrialized countries and
developing countries do not have the ability to protect
their interests.
-
A more
optimistic view based on the latest development within the
WTO suggests that the future may be different with the
past and there are reasons to believe that developing
countries may succeed to pursuing their objectives in the
upcoming negotiations. Among the reasons for optimism is
more experience in setting agenda recognizing that they
could not remain outside any negotiation, however
irrelevant or unimportant it might seem initially.
Developing countries gained more negotiating experience in
the regional trade negotiations. They also received help
from the private sector.
-
It is hard
to come to a concrete deduction as to how globalization
may change the face of the world and solve economic
problems of developing countries. Nonetheless, the future
very much depends on social, economic and political
climate of regions involved and this in itself is going to
unfold within a globalize world. The process can change
but the direction will not.
[i]
The term physiocrat means “rule of nature.”
[ii]
For more information see Arthur M. Okun, Equality and
Efficiency: The Big Tradeoff, Broking Institution,
Washington, D.C., 1975.
[iv]
Word Development Indicators (WDI) are produced and
published by the World Bank.
[v]
Explain structure adjustment and stabilization policies
in some details.
[vi]
The authors make a clear point that trade restrictions
are varied and numerous. While most studies emphasize on
a traditional form of trade restrictions, many other
ways of restricting trade exist in different countries
ranging from restrictive laws limiting competition from
outside to imposition of a variety of local taxes that
are aimed at limiting competition from outside.
[vii]
Francisco Rodriguez and Dani Rodrik (1999) assert that
there is no strong evidence to suggest that greater
trade protection results in higher economic growth at
least (as they indicate) since post-World War II period
of 1945.
[viii]
The amounts are not adjusted for inflation (world or for
the region). However, the increases certainly outpace
the trend when it is adjusted for the respective rate of
inflation.
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About the Author
Jamshid Damooei is a
Professor of Economics and Co-Director of the Center for
Leadership and Values at
California Lutheran University,
USA.